K League · Score Research

07-18 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gangwon FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 16.3%; 1:0 8.1%; 3:1 6.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.8%)

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Gangwon FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Gangwon FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.8%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但攻击乏力，客队防守有漏洞但攻击也弱，节奏极慢，微雨天气不利进球，倾向小比分平局或主队小胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 江陵竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 24℃～25℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

82 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.3%

1:0 8.1%

3:1 6.7%

2:0 6.0%

3:0 3.1%

4:1 3.1%

3:2 2.7%

4:0 1.2%

FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 16.3%; 1:0 8.1%; 3:1 6.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.8%

1:0 20.0%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 4.1%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Gangwon FC win51.1%

Draw31.7%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win17.2%

Gangwon FC expected goals1.76

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.11

Under 3.568.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight50.6%

Sample size82

Europe 1X2home 51.7% / draw 25.7% / away 22.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Gangwon FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 414h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Gangwon FC win · Actual side: Gangwon FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is 2:1 (16.3%). Gangwon FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固但攻击乏力，客队防守有漏洞但攻击也弱，节奏极慢，微雨天气不利进球，倾向小比分平局或主队小胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.8%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only