K League · Score Research

08-01 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gangwon FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:0 Probability 14.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:0 14.8%; 1:1 14.5%; 2:0 12.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.0%)

Bucheon FC 1995

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Gangwon FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Gangwon FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名第3，状态与攻防数据占优，市场深度支持1.0球优势；江原主场高温或抑制节奏，模型给出偏主胜小胜倾向，但双方攻防数据样本少，轮换风险未知。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 江陵竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 35℃～36℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

28 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:0 14.8%

1:1 14.5%

2:0 12.4%

2:1 9.4%

0:0 8.1%

3:0 7.3%

3:1 5.4%

1:2 4.5%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:0 14.8%; 1:1 14.5%; 2:0 12.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.0%

1:0 20.1%

0:1 8.5%

1:1 3.7%

2:0 2.4%

0:2 1.1%

2:1 0.8%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Gangwon FC win60.7%

Draw26.9%

Bucheon FC 1995 win12.4%

Gangwon FC expected goals1.76

Bucheon FC 1995 expected goals0.73

Under 3.577.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight25.9%

Sample size28

Europe 1X2home 60.7% / draw 24.6% / away 14.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Gangwon FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 26.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 77.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 78h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:0

Predicted side: Gangwon FC win · Actual side: Bucheon FC 1995 win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is 1:0 (14.8%). Gangwon FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名第3，状态与攻防数据占优，市场深度支持1.0球优势；江原主场高温或抑制节奏，模型给出偏主胜小胜倾向，但双方攻防数据样本少，轮换风险未知。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only