K League · Score Research

07-26 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

FC Seoul

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.9%; 3:1 11.3%; 3:2 4.5%; 2:0 3.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.4%)

Ulsan HD FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Seoul side rates higher

The handicap leans toward FC Seoul; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 首尔主场争冠优势明显但节奏偏慢，蔚山反击有威胁，微雨降低总进球概率。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 首尔世界杯球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 29℃～30℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.9%

3:1 11.3%

3:2 4.5%

2:0 3.8%

1:0 3.7%

4:1 3.0%

3:0 2.3%

5:1 2.2%

FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.9%; 3:1 11.3%; 3:2 4.5%; 2:0 3.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.4%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

FC Seoul win54.4%

Draw28.2%

Ulsan HD FC win17.4%

FC Seoul expected goals2.15

Ulsan HD FC expected goals1.34

Under 3.553.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight71.3%

Sample size199

Europe 1X2home 52.4% / draw 24.1% / away 23.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Seoul benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 222h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: FC Seoul win · Actual side: Ulsan HD FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD FC is 2:1 (15.9%). FC Seoul side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 首尔主场争冠优势明显但节奏偏慢，蔚山反击有威胁，微雨降低总进球概率。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only