K League · Score Research

07-19 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

FC Anyang

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 8.6%; 1:0 7.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.8%)

Gwangju Football Club

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Anyang side rates higher

The handicap leans toward FC Anyang; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.8%); HT draw probability is 65.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主场防守稳固，客队攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，预计低比分主胜或平。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 25℃～26℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

102 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.3%

3:1 8.6%

1:0 7.9%

2:0 6.5%

4:1 3.2%

3:0 3.0%

3:2 2.8%

4:0 1.1%

FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 8.6%; 1:0 7.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.8%

1:0 20.1%

0:1 8.6%

1:1 3.8%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.1%

2:1 0.8%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

FC Anyang win51.3%

Draw35.5%

Gwangju Football Club win13.2%

FC Anyang expected goals1.73

Gwangju Football Club expected goals1.02

Under 3.572.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight56.0%

Sample size102

Europe 1X2home 57.0% / draw 25.3% / away 17.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Anyang benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 72.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:02 CST (started/finished about 390h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:02

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: FC Anyang win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Anyang vs Gwangju Football Club is 2:1 (15.3%). FC Anyang side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主场防守稳固，客队攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，预计低比分主胜或平。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.8%); HT draw probability is 65.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only