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08-04 00:00 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

UC

UC Dublin

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.5% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.5%; 3:1 10.8%; 3:2 4.6%; 2:0 3.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.5%)
Tr

Treaty United

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength UC Dublin side rates higher

The handicap leans toward UC Dublin; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.5%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名靠前但攻击一般，客队防守稳固节奏慢，预计进球不多，主队小胜或闷平。阵容数据不足，谨慎看主胜但难穿盘。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 都柏林大学碗球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.5%
3:1 10.8%
3:2 4.6%
2:0 3.9%
1:0 3.8%
4:1 2.8%
3:0 2.3%
4:2 2.1%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.5%; 3:1 10.8%; 3:2 4.6%; 2:0 3.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.5%
1:0 20.0%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.4%
2:0 2.7%
0:2 1.3%
2:1 1.0%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
UC Dublin win53.4%
Draw28.5%
Treaty United win18.1%
UC Dublin expected goals2.13
Treaty United expected goals1.36
Under 3.554.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 56.2% / draw 23.1% / away 20.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path UC Dublin benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 25h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: UC Dublin win · Actual side: Treaty United win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for UC Dublin vs Treaty United is 2:1 (15.5%). UC Dublin side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名靠前但攻击一般，客队防守稳固节奏慢，预计进球不多，主队小胜或闷平。阵容数据不足，谨慎看主胜但难穿盘。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.5%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only