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07-25 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

UC

UC Dublin

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.9%; 1:2 13.8%; 2:1 12.5%; 1:3 6.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.3%)
Co

Cork City

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cork City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cork City; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.3%); HT draw probability is 63.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守极稳、节奏慢，主队攻击弱，预期低比分胶着。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 都柏林大学碗球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 17℃～18℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.9%
1:2 13.8%
2:1 12.5%
1:3 6.8%
2:2 6.4%
0:1 5.4%
2:3 4.2%
3:1 3.7%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.9%; 1:2 13.8%; 2:1 12.5%; 1:3 6.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.3%
0:1 16.7%
1:0 12.5%
1:1 5.5%
0:2 3.2%
2:0 1.9%
1:2 0.7%
0:3 0.4%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
UC Dublin win29.0%
Draw29.8%
Cork City win41.2%
UC Dublin expected goals1.44
Cork City expected goals1.69
Under 3.564.7%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight60.2%
Sample size121
Europe 1X2home 28.8% / draw 25.9% / away 45.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cork City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 262h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Cork City win · Actual side: UC Dublin win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for UC Dublin vs Cork City is 1:1 (17.9%). Cork City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守极稳、节奏慢，主队攻击弱，预期低比分胶着。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.3%); HT draw probability is 63.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only