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07-25 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Tr

Treaty United

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.7%; 2:1 13.3%; 1:0 7.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.3%)
At

Athlone Town

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Treaty United side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方节奏慢、攻击弱，模型偏向低比分平局，主场防守型，客队样本少存不确定性。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.7%
2:1 13.3%
1:0 7.2%
1:2 6.8%
2:2 6.7%
3:1 5.6%
3:2 5.4%
0:1 5.4%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.7%; 2:1 13.3%; 1:0 7.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.3%
1:0 15.3%
0:1 13.2%
1:1 3.6%
2:0 1.9%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Treaty United win41.8%
Draw31.9%
Athlone Town win26.3%
Treaty United expected goals1.60
Athlone Town expected goals1.37
Under 3.565.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.8%
Sample size101
Europe 1X2home 35.8% / draw 26.8% / away 37.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Treaty United benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 262h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Treaty United win · Actual side: Treaty United win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Treaty United vs Athlone Town is 1:1 (18.7%). Treaty United side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方节奏慢、攻击弱，模型偏向低比分平局，主场防守型，客队样本少存不确定性。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only