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Ireland First Division · Score Research

07-26 02:30 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Lo

Longford Town

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.9% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.9%; 2:1 13.9%; 2:2 7.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.1%)
We

Wexford (Youth)

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Longford Town side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高且进攻略优，客队防守差，但主队防守也漏，预计双方进球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.9%
2:1 13.9%
2:2 7.4%
1:2 6.9%
1:0 6.1%
3:1 6.1%
3:2 6.1%
0:1 4.4%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.9%; 2:1 13.9%; 2:2 7.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.1%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.1%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Longford Town win42.7%
Draw31.1%
Wexford (Youth) win26.1%
Longford Town expected goals1.70
Wexford (Youth) expected goals1.45
Under 3.561.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.8%
Sample size101
Europe 1X2home 40.2% / draw 25.9% / away 33.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Longford Town benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 238h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Longford Town win · Actual side: Wexford (Youth) win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Longford Town vs Wexford (Youth) is 1:1 (17.9%). Longford Town side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高且进攻略优，客队防守差，但主队防守也漏，预计双方进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only