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07-05 02:30 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Lo

Longford Town

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.7%; 1:3 8.2%; 2:3 4.6%; 0:1 4.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (53.4%)
UC

UC Dublin

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength UC Dublin side rates higher

The handicap leans toward UC Dublin; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (53.4%); HT draw probability is 59.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名高，实力占优，但主队防守稳固，总盘2.75偏向低进球，客队小胜或平局。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

116 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.7%
1:3 8.2%
2:3 4.6%
0:1 4.1%
0:2 3.2%
1:4 2.6%
0:3 1.7%
1:5 1.4%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.7%; 1:3 8.2%; 2:3 4.6%; 0:1 4.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 53.4%
0:1 18.7%
1:0 13.8%
1:1 6.5%
0:2 3.3%
2:0 2.2%
1:2 0.8%
0:3 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
Longford Town win27.2%
Draw28.4%
UC Dublin win44.5%
Longford Town expected goals1.46
UC Dublin expected goals1.83
Under 3.560.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight59.2%
Sample size116
Europe 1X2home 28.9% / draw 25.6% / away 45.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path UC Dublin benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 60.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 742h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: UC Dublin win · Actual side: Longford Town win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Longford Town vs UC Dublin is 1:2 (14.7%). UC Dublin side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名高，实力占优，但主队防守稳固，总盘2.75偏向低进球，客队小胜或平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (53.4%); HT draw probability is 59.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only