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08-04 00:00 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Lo

Longford Town

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 16.4%; 3:1 7.4%; 1:0 7.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.5%)
Fi

Finn Harps

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Longford Town side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Longford Town; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.5%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主客排名悬殊但进攻数据均偏弱，走势可能偏沉闷，主队小胜或平局概率大，注意客队偷球可能。信息有限，置信度低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 23℃～24℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

82 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.4%
3:1 7.4%
1:0 7.3%
2:0 5.9%
4:1 3.6%
3:0 3.3%
3:2 3.1%
4:0 1.4%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 16.4%; 3:1 7.4%; 1:0 7.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.5%
1:0 20.0%
0:1 8.9%
1:1 4.1%
2:0 2.6%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Longford Town win53.2%
Draw29.7%
Finn Harps win17.0%
Longford Town expected goals1.87
Finn Harps expected goals1.14
Under 3.565.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight50.6%
Sample size82
Europe 1X2home 56.6% / draw 23.7% / away 19.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Longford Town benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 25h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Longford Town win · Actual side: Longford Town win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Longford Town vs Finn Harps is 2:1 (16.4%). Longford Town side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主客排名悬殊但进攻数据均偏弱，走势可能偏沉闷，主队小胜或平局概率大，注意客队偷球可能。信息有限，置信度低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.5%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only