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07-11 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Fi

Finn Harps

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.2%; 2:1 13.6%; 2:2 7.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)
Tr

Treaty United

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Finn Harps side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 14℃～15℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.2%
2:1 13.6%
2:2 7.2%
1:2 6.9%
1:0 6.3%
3:1 6.1%
3:2 6.0%
0:1 4.7%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.2%; 2:1 13.6%; 2:2 7.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%
1:0 15.0%
0:1 13.3%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Finn Harps win42.9%
Draw30.3%
Treaty United win26.8%
Finn Harps expected goals1.70
Treaty United expected goals1.45
Under 3.561.2%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.8%
Sample size101
Europe 1X2home 38.3% / draw 25.9% / away 35.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Finn Harps benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 598h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Finn Harps win · Actual side: Treaty United win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Finn Harps vs Treaty United is 1:1 (17.2%). Finn Harps side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only