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08-01 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Fi

Finn Harps

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 12.2% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 12.2%; 0:3 7.3%; 1:3 6.8%; 1:4 5.4%; 2:3 3.9%; 0:4 3.8%; 2:4 1.6%; 0:5 1.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.8%)
Co

Cork City

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cork City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cork City; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.8%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队榜首防守稳固，主场攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，预计客队小胜或零封。但缺少阵容和战意信息，置信度较低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 11°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

29 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 12.2%
1:1 11.7%
0:2 10.1%
0:1 9.3%
0:3 7.3%
1:3 6.8%
1:4 5.4%
2:2 4.4%
FT market: side line -1.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 12.2%; 0:3 7.3%; 1:3 6.8%; 1:4 5.4%; 2:3 3.9%; 0:4 3.8%; 2:4 1.6%; 0:5 1.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.8%
0:1 21.9%
1:0 9.1%
0:2 6.8%
1:1 5.3%
0:3 1.7%
1:2 1.1%
2:0 1.1%
HT market: side line -0.75 · total 1.25
Finn Harps win12.7%
Draw20.8%
Cork City win66.5%
Finn Harps expected goals0.93
Cork City expected goals2.19
Under 3.562.9%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight26.6%
Sample size29
Europe 1X2home 10.6% / draw 17.2% / away 72.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cork City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 94h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -1.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Cork City win · Actual side: Cork City win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Finn Harps vs Cork City is 1:2 (12.2%). Cork City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队榜首防守稳固，主场攻击乏力，节奏偏慢，预计客队小胜或零封。但缺少阵容和战意信息，置信度较低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.8%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only