← Back to Ireland First Division center 中文

Ireland First Division · Score Research

07-11 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Co

Cork City

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 12.0% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.0%; 3:1 8.3%; 3:0 7.4%; 4:1 5.9%; 4:0 3.9%; 4:2 2.5%; 3:2 2.3%; 5:1 2.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (40.9%)
Lo

Longford Town

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cork City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cork City; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (40.9%); HT draw probability is 48.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.00

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 特纳斯克球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 15℃～16℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

58 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 12.0%
2:0 8.8%
3:1 8.3%
3:0 7.4%
1:0 7.2%
4:1 5.9%
4:0 3.9%
4:2 2.5%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.0%; 3:1 8.3%; 3:0 7.4%; 4:1 5.9%; 4:0 3.9%; 4:2 2.5%; 3:2 2.3%; 5:1 2.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 40.9%
1:0 28.3%
2:0 10.2%
1:1 7.0%
0:1 6.2%
3:0 2.6%
2:1 1.8%
4:0 1.0%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25
Cork City win66.1%
Draw22.3%
Longford Town win11.7%
Cork City expected goals2.31
Longford Town expected goals0.99
Under 3.559.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight42.0%
Sample size58
Europe 1X2home 71.5% / draw 17.5% / away 11.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cork City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 59.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 598h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Cork City win · Actual side: Longford Town win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cork City vs Longford Town is 2:1 (12.0%). Cork City side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. HT first pick is 0:0 (40.9%); HT draw probability is 48.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only