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08-04 00:00 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Co

Cork City

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 17.2% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.2%; 3:1 10.1%; 3:2 6.0%; 3:0 4.1%; 4:1 4.0%; 4:0 2.5%; 4:2 2.3%; 5:1 2.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.4%)
At

Athlone Town

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cork City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cork City; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 57.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队榜首且防守稳，客队进攻弱，市场深盘但双方节奏慢，半场常平，倾向主队小胜。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 特纳斯克球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 17.2%
1:1 11.5%
3:1 10.1%
1:0 6.7%
3:2 6.0%
1:2 5.9%
2:0 5.7%
2:2 5.6%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.2%; 3:1 10.1%; 3:2 6.0%; 3:0 4.1%; 4:1 4.0%; 4:0 2.5%; 4:2 2.3%; 5:1 2.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.4%
1:0 23.5%
0:1 9.0%
1:1 5.7%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.9%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
Cork City win65.8%
Draw21.4%
Athlone Town win12.8%
Cork City expected goals2.28
Athlone Town expected goals1.15
Under 3.556.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.3%
Sample size112
Europe 1X2home 64.6% / draw 20.0% / away 15.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cork City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 25h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Cork City win · Actual side: Cork City win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cork City vs Athlone Town is 2:1 (17.2%). Cork City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队榜首且防守稳，客队进攻弱，市场深盘但双方节奏慢，半场常平，倾向主队小胜。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.4%); HT draw probability is 57.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only