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08-01 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Br

Bray Wanderers

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.5% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.5%; 3:1 10.6%; 4:2 5.1%; 3:2 3.9%; 3:0 3.2%; 4:1 3.1%; 5:1 2.5%; 5:2 1.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.5%)
Ke

Kerry FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Bray Wanderers side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Bray Wanderers; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.5%); HT draw probability is 57.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强但客队防守稳健，节奏一快一慢，预期主队压制但可能小胜，半场常闷平，留意客队反击进1球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 卡莱尔庭园球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 17°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

144 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.5%
1:1 13.1%
3:1 10.6%
1:2 7.6%
4:2 5.1%
2:0 4.6%
1:0 4.6%
2:2 4.6%
FT market: side line 1.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.5%; 3:1 10.6%; 4:2 5.1%; 3:2 3.9%; 3:0 3.2%; 4:1 3.1%; 5:1 2.5%; 5:2 1.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.5%
1:0 23.5%
0:1 9.0%
1:1 5.7%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.9%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
Bray Wanderers win61.5%
Draw21.7%
Kerry FC win16.8%
Bray Wanderers expected goals2.31
Kerry FC expected goals1.31
Under 3.553.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight64.3%
Sample size144
Europe 1X2home 62.6% / draw 20.6% / away 16.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Bray Wanderers benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 94h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Bray Wanderers win · Actual side: Kerry FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Bray Wanderers vs Kerry FC is 2:1 (16.5%). Bray Wanderers side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强但客队防守稳健，节奏一快一慢，预期主队压制但可能小胜，半场常闷平，留意客队反击进1球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.5%); HT draw probability is 57.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only