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08-01 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

At

Athlone Town

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 14.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.9%; 1:2 14.0%; 2:1 12.6%; 2:2 8.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)
UC

UC Dublin

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Athlone Town side rates higher

The handicap leans toward UC Dublin; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力略优但主队主场，模型显示平局概率高，进攻效率低，整体节奏慢，样本少需谨慎。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 阿斯隆城体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 15°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

178 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 14.9%
1:2 14.0%
2:1 12.6%
2:2 8.9%
3:1 6.4%
1:3 5.1%
3:2 4.1%
0:1 3.8%
FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.9%; 1:2 14.0%; 2:1 12.6%; 2:2 8.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%
1:0 15.2%
0:1 13.3%
1:1 3.9%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.9%
2:1 0.7%
1:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
Athlone Town win36.7%
Draw28.0%
UC Dublin win35.3%
Athlone Town expected goals1.71
UC Dublin expected goals1.68
Under 3.558.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight69.0%
Sample size178
Europe 1X2home 31.8% / draw 25.3% / away 42.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Athlone Town benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 58.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:13 CST (started/finished about 94h 35m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Athlone Town win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Athlone Town vs UC Dublin is 1:1 (14.9%). Athlone Town side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力略优但主队主场，模型显示平局概率高，进攻效率低，整体节奏慢，样本少需谨慎。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only