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Iceland Premier Division · Score Research

07-20 00:00 CST · Iceland Premier Division · Separate HT/FT models

KR

KR Reykjavik

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 9.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 9.8%; 3:1 8.1%; 3:2 5.8%; 4:1 5.4%; 4:2 4.2%; 5:1 3.4%; 3:0 2.8%; 5:2 2.5% Half-time first pick 1:0 (24.2%)
St

Stjarnan Gardabaer

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength KR Reykjavik side rates higher

The handicap leans toward KR Reykjavik; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (24.2%); HT draw probability is 38.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 4.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强节奏快，但防线有漏洞；客队防守好但进攻弱，主队取胜可能失球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: KR沃鲁尔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 11℃～12℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

4315 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 9.8%
1:1 9.0%
3:1 8.1%
2:2 6.6%
3:2 5.8%
1:2 5.7%
4:1 5.4%
4:2 4.2%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 4.75 · Bucket global
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 9.8%; 3:1 8.1%; 3:2 5.8%; 4:1 5.4%; 4:2 4.2%; 5:1 3.4%; 3:0 2.8%; 5:2 2.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 24.2%
0:0 25.3%
1:1 11.0%
0:1 8.3%
2:0 8.3%
2:1 5.1%
1:2 3.5%
0:2 3.4%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25
KR Reykjavik win61.4%
Draw20.0%
Stjarnan Gardabaer win18.6%
KR Reykjavik expected goals2.89
Stjarnan Gardabaer expected goals1.67
Under 3.533.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight38.0%
Sample size4315
Europe 1X2home 62.3% / draw 16.8% / away 20.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path KR Reykjavik benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 33.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:06 CST (started/finished about 385h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:06

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 4.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: KR Reykjavik win · Actual side: KR Reykjavik win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KR Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer is 2:1 (9.8%). KR Reykjavik side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻击强节奏快，但防线有漏洞；客队防守好但进攻弱，主队取胜可能失球。 HT first pick is 1:0 (24.2%); HT draw probability is 38.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only