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Iceland Premier Division · Score Research

07-13 02:00 CST · Iceland Premier Division · Separate HT/FT models

KR

KR Reykjavik

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 3:1 Probability 11.2% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 3:1 11.2%; 2:1 9.5%; 3:2 7.3%; 4:1 5.4%; 5:1 4.4%; 3:0 4.1%; 4:2 3.3%; 4:0 3.0% Half-time first pick 1:0 (26.8%)
IB

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength KR Reykjavik side rates higher

The handicap leans toward KR Reykjavik; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (26.8%); HT draw probability is 40.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 4.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻强势，客队防守数据好但样本少，主队大胜概率高但需防冷。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: KR沃鲁尔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 10℃～11℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

29 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

3:1 11.2%
2:1 9.5%
3:2 7.3%
2:2 6.7%
1:1 5.6%
4:1 5.4%
5:1 4.4%
3:0 4.1%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 4.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/4.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 3:1 11.2%; 2:1 9.5%; 3:2 7.3%; 4:1 5.4%; 5:1 4.4%; 3:0 4.1%; 4:2 3.3%; 4:0 3.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 26.8%
0:0 29.2%
1:1 10.3%
0:1 9.0%
2:0 8.6%
2:1 3.9%
0:2 2.9%
1:2 2.6%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.75
KR Reykjavik win68.8%
Draw17.0%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win14.2%
KR Reykjavik expected goals2.92
IBV Vestmannaeyjar expected goals1.50
Under 3.533.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight26.6%
Sample size29
Europe 1X2home 61.7% / draw 18.1% / away 20.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path KR Reykjavik benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 17.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 33.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:06 CST (started/finished about 551h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:06

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 4.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 3:1

Predicted side: KR Reykjavik win · Actual side: KR Reykjavik win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KR Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 3:1 (11.2%). KR Reykjavik side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻强势，客队防守数据好但样本少，主队大胜概率高但需防冷。 HT first pick is 1:0 (26.8%); HT draw probability is 40.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only