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07-28 03:15 CST · Iceland Premier Division · Separate HT/FT models

KA

KA Akureyri

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.1%; 3:1 7.0%; 3:2 5.9%; 4:1 4.9%; 3:0 4.5%; 4:0 2.4%; 4:2 2.0%; 5:2 1.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (34.7%)
Th

Thor Akureyri

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength KA Akureyri side rates higher

The handicap leans toward KA Akureyri; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (34.7%); HT draw probability is 45.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳健但进攻一般，客队防守漏洞大但进攻疲软，节奏慢，总进球受限。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 阿库雷拉沃勒球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 6℃～7℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

25 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.1%
1:1 9.4%
3:1 7.0%
1:2 6.8%
2:0 6.0%
3:2 5.9%
1:0 5.4%
2:2 5.2%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.5
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.1%; 3:1 7.0%; 3:2 5.9%; 4:1 4.9%; 3:0 4.5%; 4:0 2.4%; 4:2 2.0%; 5:2 1.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 34.7%
1:0 24.1%
0:1 10.1%
1:1 9.6%
2:0 7.7%
0:2 4.3%
1:2 2.9%
2:1 2.5%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.50
KA Akureyri win60.3%
Draw19.2%
Thor Akureyri win20.5%
KA Akureyri expected goals2.28
Thor Akureyri expected goals1.34
Under 3.553.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight23.8%
Sample size25
Europe 1X2home 51.9% / draw 22.2% / away 25.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path KA Akureyri benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 19.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:06 CST (started/finished about 190h 5m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:06

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: KA Akureyri win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri is 2:1 (13.1%). KA Akureyri side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳健但进攻一般，客队防守漏洞大但进攻疲软，节奏慢，总进球受限。 HT first pick is 0:0 (34.7%); HT draw probability is 45.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only