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Finnish Veikkausliiga · Score Research

07-20 23:00 CST · Finnish Veikkausliiga · Separate HT/FT models

TPS Turku

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 15.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 13.9%; 2:1 12.7%; 2:2 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)

Ilves Tampere

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength TPS Turku side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Ilves Tampere; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻乏力节奏慢，客队防守一般，主队让球但优势不大，平局和低比分概率高。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

178 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 15.7%

1:2 13.9%

2:1 12.7%

2:2 8.6%

3:1 6.4%

1:3 4.9%

1:0 4.0%

0:1 4.0%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 13.9%; 2:1 12.7%; 2:2 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.3%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.7%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

TPS Turku win36.8%

Draw28.6%

Ilves Tampere win34.6%

TPS Turku expected goals1.68

Ilves Tampere expected goals1.64

Under 3.559.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight69.0%

Sample size178

Europe 1X2home 33.7% / draw 25.7% / away 40.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path TPS Turku benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 59.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:59 CST (started/finished about 362h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:59

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: TPS Turku win · Actual side: Ilves Tampere win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for TPS Turku vs Ilves Tampere is 1:1 (15.7%). TPS Turku side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻乏力节奏慢，客队防守一般，主队让球但优势不大，平局和低比分概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only