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Finnish Veikkausliiga · Score Research

07-11 22:00 CST · Finnish Veikkausliiga · Separate HT/FT models

TP

TPS Turku

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.3%; 2:1 16.0%; 1:2 10.1%; 2:2 9.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.1%)
AC

AC Oulu

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength TPS Turku side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻弱守强，节奏缓慢，预计低比分平局可能。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 12℃～13℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.3%
2:1 16.0%
1:2 10.1%
2:2 9.0%
1:3 5.5%
3:1 5.1%
3:2 4.5%
1:0 3.8%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.3%; 2:1 16.0%; 1:2 10.1%; 2:2 9.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.1%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.1%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
TPS Turku win40.3%
Draw31.3%
AC Oulu win28.4%
TPS Turku expected goals1.75
AC Oulu expected goals1.55
Under 3.559.9%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight73.2%
Sample size219
Europe 1X2home 37.1% / draw 27.2% / away 35.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path TPS Turku benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 59.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:59 CST (started/finished about 579h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:59

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: TPS Turku win · Actual side: TPS Turku win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for TPS Turku vs AC Oulu is 1:1 (18.3%). TPS Turku side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻弱守强，节奏缓慢，预计低比分平局可能。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only