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Finnish Veikkausliiga · Score Research

08-02 22:00 CST · Finnish Veikkausliiga · Separate HT/FT models

AC

AC Oulu

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.6%; 2:1 16.1%; 1:2 10.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)
Il

Ilves Tampere

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength AC Oulu side rates higher

The handicap leans toward AC Oulu; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 节奏极低，主队漏勺但攻弱，客队防强，总进球倾向小；主队仅微弱优势，平局/小球可关注。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 海纳帕PH球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.6%
2:1 16.1%
1:2 10.5%
2:2 10.5%
3:1 6.2%
1:0 4.7%
0:0 4.0%
3:2 3.5%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.6%; 2:1 16.1%; 1:2 10.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.0%
1:1 3.6%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.6%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
AC Oulu win40.2%
Draw35.0%
Ilves Tampere win24.8%
AC Oulu expected goals1.68
Ilves Tampere expected goals1.39
Under 3.564.9%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight63.5%
Sample size139
Europe 1X2home 40.5% / draw 26.9% / away 32.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path AC Oulu benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:00 CST (started/finished about 51h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:00

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: AC Oulu win · Actual side: AC Oulu win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for AC Oulu vs Ilves Tampere is 1:1 (18.6%). AC Oulu side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 节奏极低，主队漏勺但攻弱，客队防强，总进球倾向小；主队仅微弱优势，平局/小球可关注。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only