Chile Cup · Score Research

07-05 03:00 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

Union San Felipe

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.3%; 2:1 12.4%; 1:2 10.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.8%)

Union La Calera

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Union San Felipe side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Union La Calera; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.8%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 智利杯乙级队主场对甲级弱旅，市场浅让，概率分布均衡，预计谨慎开局，主场或有微弱优势。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 有雾, 11°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

76 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.3%

2:1 12.4%

1:2 10.4%

2:2 8.1%

0:1 5.6%

3:1 5.2%

1:0 5.1%

1:3 4.9%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.3%; 2:1 12.4%; 1:2 10.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.8%

1:0 15.4%

0:1 14.5%

1:1 4.2%

0:2 1.9%

2:0 1.9%

2:1 0.7%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Union San Felipe win34.6%

Draw33.4%

Union La Calera win32.0%

Union San Felipe expected goals1.51

Union La Calera expected goals1.47

Under 3.566.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight48.7%

Sample size76

Europe 1X2home 31.8% / draw 27.1% / away 41.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Union San Felipe benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 66.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:15 CST (started/finished about 742h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Union San Felipe win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Union San Felipe vs Union La Calera is 1:1 (19.3%). Union San Felipe side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 智利杯乙级队主场对甲级弱旅，市场浅让，概率分布均衡，预计谨慎开局，主场或有微弱优势。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.8%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only