Chile Cup · Score Research

07-05 04:00 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

San Luis Quillota

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.9% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.9%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (57.7%)

Everton CD

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength San Luis Quillota side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Everton CD; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (57.7%); HT draw probability is 63.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 跨级别杯赛，主队主场让球但客队智甲，模型持平，微雨可能偏低总进球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 10°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

81 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.9%

2:1 12.2%

1:2 10.2%

2:2 7.8%

0:1 5.9%

3:1 5.1%

1:0 5.0%

1:3 4.7%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.9%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 57.7%

0:1 17.1%

1:0 12.7%

1:1 5.6%

0:2 3.2%

2:0 2.0%

1:2 0.7%

0:3 0.4%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00

San Luis Quillota win35.0%

Draw33.4%

Everton CD win31.7%

San Luis Quillota expected goals1.51

Everton CD expected goals1.45

Under 3.566.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight50.3%

Sample size81

Europe 1X2home 29.9% / draw 27.0% / away 43.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path San Luis Quillota benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 66.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:15 CST (started/finished about 741h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: San Luis Quillota win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for San Luis Quillota vs Everton CD is 1:1 (18.9%). San Luis Quillota side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 跨级别杯赛，主队主场让球但客队智甲，模型持平，微雨可能偏低总进球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (57.7%); HT draw probability is 63.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only