Chile Cup · Score Research

07-06 03:00 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

Puerto Montt

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 15.1% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.1%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.8%; 2:2 8.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

Huachipato

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Puerto Montt side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Huachipato; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队甲级但让浅，主队低级别主场，天气冷影响节奏，阵容未知。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 6℃～7℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

176 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 15.1%

1:2 14.2%

2:1 12.8%

2:2 8.9%

3:1 6.6%

1:3 5.1%

3:2 4.1%

0:1 3.7%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.1%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.8%; 2:2 8.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.0%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.7%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Puerto Montt win36.5%

Draw28.1%

Huachipato win35.4%

Puerto Montt expected goals1.72

Huachipato expected goals1.70

Under 3.557.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight68.8%

Sample size176

Europe 1X2home 34.1% / draw 25.9% / away 40.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Puerto Montt benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:15 CST (started/finished about 718h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Puerto Montt win · Actual side: Puerto Montt win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Puerto Montt vs Huachipato is 1:1 (15.1%). Puerto Montt side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队甲级但让浅，主队低级别主场，天气冷影响节奏，阵容未知。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only