Chile Cup · Score Research

07-06 08:00 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

Deportes Limache

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.7% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.7%; 3:1 9.9%; 4:2 5.1%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:1 3.0%; 3:0 2.9%; 5:1 2.4%; 5:2 1.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (49.6%)

San Marcos de Arica

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Deportes Limache side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Deportes Limache; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 56.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队甲级但防守漏洞大，客队乙级领头羊有进球潜力，总进球盘3.0偏大，看好开放局面。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 13℃～14℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

143 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.7%

1:1 13.2%

3:1 9.9%

1:2 8.0%

4:2 5.1%

2:2 4.8%

2:0 4.3%

1:0 4.3%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 16.7%; 3:1 9.9%; 4:2 5.1%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:1 3.0%; 3:0 2.9%; 5:1 2.4%; 5:2 1.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 49.6%

1:0 23.9%

0:1 9.5%

1:1 6.0%

2:0 5.7%

2:1 1.5%

3:0 1.2%

0:2 0.9%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25

Deportes Limache win59.8%

Draw22.2%

San Marcos de Arica win18.0%

Deportes Limache expected goals2.29

San Marcos de Arica expected goals1.36

Under 3.553.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight64.1%

Sample size143

Europe 1X2home 59.5% / draw 21.2% / away 19.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Deportes Limache benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:15 CST (started/finished about 713h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Deportes Limache win · Actual side: Deportes Limache win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Deportes Limache vs San Marcos de Arica is 2:1 (16.7%). Deportes Limache side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队甲级但防守漏洞大，客队乙级领头羊有进球潜力，总进球盘3.0偏大，看好开放局面。 HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 56.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only