Chile Cup · Score Research

07-13 00:30 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

Cobreloa

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.7%; 2:1 16.0%; 2:2 11.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

Deportes La Serena

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cobreloa side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cobreloa; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 智利甲客队防守漏洞大，但攻击略强；主队防守稳但攻击弱；市场平衡，暂判均势。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 12℃～14℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

138 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.7%

2:1 16.0%

2:2 11.0%

1:2 10.5%

3:1 6.5%

1:0 4.2%

3:2 3.8%

0:0 3.4%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.7%; 2:1 16.0%; 2:2 11.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.5%

0:1 13.0%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.6%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Cobreloa win40.8%

Draw34.4%

Deportes La Serena win24.8%

Cobreloa expected goals1.75

Deportes La Serena expected goals1.44

Under 3.561.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.3%

Sample size138

Europe 1X2home 41.0% / draw 27.2% / away 31.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cobreloa benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 34.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:15 CST (started/finished about 552h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Cobreloa win · Actual side: Cobreloa win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cobreloa vs Deportes La Serena is 1:1 (17.7%). Cobreloa side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 智利甲客队防守漏洞大，但攻击略强；主队防守稳但攻击弱；市场平衡，暂判均势。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 65.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only