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07-27 05:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

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York United FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.2% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.2%; 1:3 6.4%; 0:1 5.4%; 0:2 4.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (57.0%)
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Forge FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Forge FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Forge FC; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 约克联排名垫底，主场攻击弱；弗尔戈领头羊，控制力强。模型指向客胜小比分，主队偷球可能。节奏偏慢，阵容未知。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 约克狮子体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 25°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

86 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.2%
1:3 6.4%
0:1 5.4%
0:2 4.8%
1:4 2.9%
2:3 2.6%
0:3 2.4%
2:4 2.2%
FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.2%; 1:3 6.4%; 0:1 5.4%; 0:2 4.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 57.0%
0:1 16.9%
1:0 12.5%
1:1 5.8%
0:2 3.5%
2:0 2.0%
1:2 0.8%
0:3 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25
York United FC win24.9%
Draw29.5%
Forge FC win45.6%
York United FC expected goals1.36
Forge FC expected goals1.79
Under 3.562.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight51.8%
Sample size86
Europe 1X2home 21.5% / draw 23.2% / away 55.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Forge FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 212h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Forge FC win · Actual side: Forge FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for York United FC vs Forge FC is 1:2 (14.2%). Forge FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 约克联排名垫底，主场攻击弱；弗尔戈领头羊，控制力强。模型指向客胜小比分，主队偷球可能。节奏偏慢，阵容未知。 HT first pick is 0:0 (57.0%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only