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07-05 07:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Va

Vancouver FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.5% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.5%; 2:1 16.2%; 1:2 10.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.8%)
Yo

York United FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Vancouver FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Vancouver FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 61.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防数据偏弱，节奏慢，看好小比分平局可能。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 威洛比社区公园体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 21°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

134 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.5%
2:1 16.2%
1:2 10.8%
2:2 10.7%
3:1 6.3%
1:0 4.4%
3:2 3.6%
1:3 3.3%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.5%; 2:1 16.2%; 1:2 10.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.8%
1:0 21.0%
0:1 10.4%
1:1 4.9%
2:0 2.4%
0:2 1.5%
2:1 1.0%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Vancouver FC win39.6%
Draw35.5%
York United FC win24.9%
Vancouver FC expected goals1.69
York United FC expected goals1.43
Under 3.564.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight62.6%
Sample size134
Europe 1X2home 44.9% / draw 25.2% / away 29.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Vancouver FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 738h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Vancouver FC win · Actual side: Vancouver FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Vancouver FC vs York United FC is 1:1 (19.5%). Vancouver FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防数据偏弱，节奏慢，看好小比分平局可能。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 61.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only