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07-25 10:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Va

Vancouver FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 15.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.3%; 1:2 14.3%; 2:1 12.9%; 2:2 8.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.4%)
Ca

Cavalry FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Vancouver FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cavalry FC; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.4%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 模型概率均衡，攻防数据客稍优，主场优势抵消，慢节奏下小球倾向，但盘口支持2-3球。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 威洛比社区公园体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 25°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

178 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 15.3%
1:2 14.3%
2:1 12.9%
2:2 8.5%
3:1 6.4%
1:3 5.1%
3:2 3.9%
0:1 3.9%
FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.3%; 1:2 14.3%; 2:1 12.9%; 2:2 8.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.4%
0:1 16.7%
1:0 12.5%
1:1 5.5%
0:2 3.2%
2:0 1.9%
1:2 0.7%
0:3 0.4%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
Vancouver FC win36.7%
Draw27.9%
Cavalry FC win35.4%
Vancouver FC expected goals1.69
Cavalry FC expected goals1.66
Under 3.559.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight69.0%
Sample size178
Europe 1X2home 33.7% / draw 24.5% / away 41.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Vancouver FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 59.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 255h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Vancouver FC win · Actual side: Vancouver FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is 1:1 (15.3%). Vancouver FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 模型概率均衡，攻防数据客稍优，主场优势抵消，慢节奏下小球倾向，但盘口支持2-3球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.4%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only