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07-06 01:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Su

Supra Du Quebec

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:2 14.3%; 0:1 9.6%; 0:2 6.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (57.9%)
Fo

Forge FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Forge FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Forge FC; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (57.9%); HT draw probability is 63.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队弗尔戈FC实力占优且排名榜首，但主队主场有韧性；节奏偏慢，总进球可能不高；客队小胜概率较大。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

43 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.3%
0:1 9.6%
0:2 6.8%
1:3 6.1%
0:3 3.5%
2:3 3.4%
1:4 2.5%
2:4 2.3%
FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:2 14.3%; 0:1 9.6%; 0:2 6.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 57.9%
0:1 17.3%
1:0 12.4%
1:1 5.4%
0:2 3.3%
2:0 1.9%
1:2 0.6%
0:3 0.4%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
Supra Du Quebec win20.0%
Draw28.7%
Forge FC win51.3%
Supra Du Quebec expected goals1.08
Forge FC expected goals1.68
Under 3.571.7%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight35.0%
Sample size43
Europe 1X2home 23.9% / draw 26.8% / away 49.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Forge FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 71.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 720h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Forge FC win · Actual side: Forge FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Supra Du Quebec vs Forge FC is 1:2 (14.3%). Forge FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队弗尔戈FC实力占优且排名榜首，但主队主场有韧性；节奏偏慢，总进球可能不高；客队小胜概率较大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (57.9%); HT draw probability is 63.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only