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07-06 06:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Pa

Pacific FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.3%; 2:1 15.9%; 1:2 10.0%; 2:2 9.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.3%)
HF

HFX Wanderers FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Pacific FC side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.3%); HT draw probability is 65.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 平手盘实力接近，主队进攻弱客队防守好，节奏慢，预计小比分，阵容样本偏少。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 星光体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 16°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

217 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.3%
2:1 15.9%
1:2 10.0%
2:2 9.3%
1:3 5.9%
3:1 5.4%
3:2 4.9%
2:3 3.7%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.3%; 2:1 15.9%; 1:2 10.0%; 2:2 9.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.3%
1:0 15.1%
0:1 13.1%
1:1 4.0%
2:0 2.1%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 0.8%
1:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
Pacific FC win40.8%
Draw30.5%
HFX Wanderers FC win28.7%
Pacific FC expected goals1.82
HFX Wanderers FC expected goals1.61
Under 3.556.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight73.1%
Sample size217
Europe 1X2home 37.4% / draw 25.2% / away 37.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Pacific FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 715h 0m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Pacific FC win · Actual side: HFX Wanderers FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Pacific FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is 1:1 (17.3%). Pacific FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 平手盘实力接近，主队进攻弱客队防守好，节奏慢，预计小比分，阵容样本偏少。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.3%); HT draw probability is 65.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only