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07-17 07:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Fo

Forge FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.2% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.2%; 3:1 8.7%; 3:0 8.1%; 4:1 6.5%; 4:0 4.6%; 4:2 2.7%; 5:1 2.6%; 3:2 2.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (41.2%)
Pa

Pacific FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Forge FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Forge FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (41.2%); HT draw probability is 48.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力碾压但节奏偏慢，阵容样本薄，防小胜或零封。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 蒂姆霍顿球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 24°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

58 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.2%
2:0 8.8%
3:1 8.7%
3:0 8.1%
1:0 6.9%
4:1 6.5%
4:0 4.6%
4:2 2.7%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.2%; 3:1 8.7%; 3:0 8.1%; 4:1 6.5%; 4:0 4.6%; 4:2 2.7%; 5:1 2.6%; 3:2 2.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 41.2%
1:0 28.6%
2:0 10.4%
1:1 6.7%
0:1 5.9%
3:0 2.6%
2:1 1.7%
4:0 1.0%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25
Forge FC win69.3%
Draw20.3%
Pacific FC win10.4%
Forge FC expected goals2.45
Pacific FC expected goals0.96
Under 3.556.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight42.0%
Sample size58
Europe 1X2home 73.0% / draw 17.1% / away 9.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Forge FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 449h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Forge FC win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Forge FC vs Pacific FC is 2:1 (11.2%). Forge FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力碾压但节奏偏慢，阵容样本薄，防小胜或零封。 HT first pick is 0:0 (41.2%); HT draw probability is 48.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only