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08-02 09:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Ca

Cavalry FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 17.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.1%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 6.7%; 4:1 4.3%; 3:0 3.6%; 4:2 2.6%; 4:0 2.4%; 5:1 2.3% Half-time first pick pending (N/A)
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York United FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cavalry FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cavalry FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace pending

Half-time market data is missing, so no half-time score call is shown.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 骑兵主场强攻但防线漏洞大，约克联进攻弱但有机会偷袭，总进球线3.0预示对攻局面。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: ATCO体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 14°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 17.1%
1:1 10.9%
3:1 10.3%
3:2 6.7%
2:2 5.9%
1:2 5.9%
1:0 5.6%
2:0 5.0%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.1%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 6.7%; 4:1 4.3%; 3:0 3.6%; 4:2 2.6%; 4:0 2.4%; 5:1 2.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

暂无比分分布
HT market: side line N/A · total N/A
Cavalry FC win65.6%
Draw21.1%
York United FC win13.3%
Cavalry FC expected goals2.36
York United FC expected goals1.22
Under 3.552.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.3%
Sample size112
Europe 1X2home 63.4% / draw 23.5% / away 13.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cavalry FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays pending, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 64h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Cavalry FC win · Actual side: Cavalry FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cavalry FC vs York United FC is 2:1 (17.1%). Cavalry FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 骑兵主场强攻但防线漏洞大，约克联进攻弱但有机会偷袭，总进球线3.0预示对攻局面。 Half-time market data is missing, so no half-time score call is shown. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only