← Back to Canadian Premier League center 中文

Canadian Premier League · Score Research

07-29 09:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Ca

Cavalry FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 17.0% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.0%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 6.4%; 4:1 4.2%; 3:0 3.9%; 4:0 2.5%; 4:2 2.5%; 5:1 2.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.2%)
Su

Supra Du Quebec

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cavalry FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cavalry FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.2%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固且战意强，客队进攻乏力，预计主队小胜但总进球不多。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: ATCO体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 12°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 17.0%
1:1 11.1%
3:1 10.3%
3:2 6.4%
1:0 6.0%
1:2 5.9%
2:2 5.7%
2:0 5.3%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 17.0%; 3:1 10.3%; 3:2 6.4%; 4:1 4.2%; 3:0 3.9%; 4:0 2.5%; 4:2 2.5%; 5:1 2.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.2%
1:0 23.4%
0:1 9.0%
1:1 5.8%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.9%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
Cavalry FC win66.0%
Draw21.0%
Supra Du Quebec win12.9%
Cavalry FC expected goals2.34
Supra Du Quebec expected goals1.19
Under 3.553.7%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.3%
Sample size112
Europe 1X2home 62.8% / draw 20.0% / away 17.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cavalry FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:14 CST (started/finished about 160h 10m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:14

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Cavalry FC win · Actual side: Cavalry FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cavalry FC vs Supra Du Quebec is 2:1 (17.0%). Cavalry FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固且战意强，客队进攻乏力，预计主队小胜但总进球不多。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.2%); HT draw probability is 57.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only